ABNT20 KNHC 171131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, north of the Lesser Antilles.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina is producing limited showers and
thunderstorms well to the east of the center. Development, if any,
of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so
while it drifts generally eastward. The opportunity for development
should end on Monday when environmental upper-level wind conditions
are expected to become unfavorable.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the middle to latter portion of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 181131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a little over 100 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk
Island.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the
week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at
about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the
vicinity of the Leeward Islands toward the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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ABNT20 KNHC 182338
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week.
This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20
mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity
of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a
persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible over the next day or
two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system
should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its
chances for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 191146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a couple hundred miles to the northeast of the
Southeast Bahamas.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of
the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the
Leeward Islands on Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for additional development over the next couple
of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the
end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable
environment, limiting its development chances after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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ABNT20 KNHC 201144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern
Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for additional development over the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 211154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show
some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 221144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on
Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into
Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 231156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed
about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A
tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with
further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while
the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air
Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low
this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
this system as watches could be still required later today. For
additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the
next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20
mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on
Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the
central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 241139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since
yesterday. However, the wave does not appear to have a surface
circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression
during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about
20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands
later today and early Monday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is
expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional
development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has become
less organized since yesterday, and further development is not
anticipated as it moves quickly westward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 261116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 281118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, moving across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 301137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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