ACUS02 KWNS 170536
SWODY2
SPC AC 170534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Monday over parts of the central and northern
Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great
Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, a ridge will build over the northern Plains on
Monday, as flow over much of the north-central U.S. remains from the west-northwest. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be in
place over much of the central and eastern Dakotas. Along the
southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability
will likely develop by afternoon from parts of eastern Montana
southeastward into Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will likely remain
limited over much of the region, helping to keep convective
development isolated. Although deep-layer shear should remain below
35 knots in most areas, low to mid-level lapse rates will be steep.
This could be enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly in the
late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon. To the east
of the trough, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
from central Iowa eastward into northern Illinois. The greatest
convective coverage is expected to develop further to the north
across parts of Wisconsin, where instability will be weaker but
deep-layer shear will be greater. The combination of instability and
deep-layer shear across Wisconsin could be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat during the late afternoon and early evening. This
threat, along with a potential for hail could extend southwestward
into central Iowa where strong instability is forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. Isolated to widely scattered
storms could produce large hail and severe winds in parts of the central/northern Plains.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered storms to develop either along a weak
surface trough, within the terrain in eastern Wyoming/Black Hills,
or a cold front near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Strong
buoyancy and effective shear of 30-40 kts will allow for the
stronger storms to be organized. Large hail and severe winds would
be the expected hazards. There is some potential for a more
organized cluster of storms to progress eastward. This would most
likely occur near the cold front during late afternoon/evening.
However, a very weak low-level jet and uncertain cold pool
organization keeps confidence too low for any increase in wind
probabilities.

...Upper Midwest...
Showers/thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning.
This will have an impact on where the greatest destabilization will
occur during the afternoon. Furthermore, the region will be in the
wake of a departing shortwave trough/MCV with mid-level ascent being
nebulous and uncertain. Current guidance suggests the greatest
potential for afternoon storms will exist in parts of
central/southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois. There, some
surface heating and low-level lift near a weak surface low/triple
point could promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms.
While the exact placement of this activity remains uncertain, the
environment would support marginal supercells and multicell clusters
with a primary hazard of damaging winds.

Farther southwest into Iowa, strong buoyancy is expected to develop
south of any outflow from morning activity. MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg
would support a threat for isolated wind damage even with weaker
effective shear than farther north. However, with little in the way
of mid-level ascent and uncertain low-level forcing gives low
confidence in storm coverage.

...Southwest into central Montana...
Though a ridge will be building into the northern Rockies,
sufficient moisture may promote thunderstorm development in the
higher terrain. Flow aloft will be strong enough to support at least
marginally organized storms. However, it is not clear how intense
storms will be given some signal for moisture to mix out during the
afternoon. Strong, gusty outflow winds are possible, but confidence
in severe potential remains low.

..Wendt.. 08/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180555
SWODY2
SPC AC 180553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will build northward across the central Rockies
and northern High Plains on Tuesday, as a subtle shortwave trough
moves through the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys,
extending westward into the southern Plains. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, low-level convergence near the front will be
favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
Limited large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer shear will be
unfavorable for severe storms. Further northwest into the
north-central states, moderate instability will be possible by
Tuesday afternoon, mainly in the Dakotas. However, a severe threat
is not expected due to limited large-scale ascent, minimal low-level convergence, and weak deep-layer shear. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Localized damaging winds are possible across parts of the Midwest,
Mid-South, and southern Great Plains on Tuesday afternoon to early
evening.

...Midwest to Southern Great Plains...
The upper-level pattern will be characterized by an anticyclone
anchored over the Southwest and a low-amplitude trough/embedded MCVs
from the Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley. While mid-level winds
will be weak to the southwest of the Great Lakes, low-probability
severe gust/damaging wind potential is evident Tuesday along a
convectively modulated surface front expected to arc from the Lake
Erie vicinity to the Lower OH Valley and trailing into KS/OK. This
should be focused during the afternoon to early evening as scattered
to numerous thunderstorms form along the front, as well as on
pre-existing outflows from early-day convective remnants.

Rather warm boundary-layer temperatures will again support a swath
of large buoyancy, which should have embedded pockets of more muted
MLCAPE where morning convection decays. 12Z HREF and ML guidance
signals are supportive of sporadic strong to severe gusts in wet
microbursts. With weak deep-layer shear, organized clustering
appears unlikely. Thus, isolated damaging winds seem plausible until
convection weakens around sunset.

..Grams.. 08/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190541
SWODY2
SPC AC 190539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late
afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far
northeast Montana.

...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana...
A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four
Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day.
Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central
North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front
in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms
possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota.
Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191703
SWODY2
SPC AC 191702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening
across northern North Dakota and far northeast Montana.

...Northeast MT into northern ND...

A strong upper anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners,
with attendant upper riding extending north/northeast into the
northern Plains. A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop
east across the Canadian Rockies, and eventually into Saskatchewan
late in the period. This will result in height falls across the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains generally after 00z. As
this occurs, mid/upper westerly flow will increase. Modestly
deepening low pressure over eastern MT likely will result in
increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front moving across the region from
late afternoon into the nighttime hours.

A narrow corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will exist across
western ND ahead of the front. Steep lapse rates will support
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE values. However, capping will likely suppress
diurnal convection. As strong ascent accompanies the approach of the
surface front and upper trough during the evening/nighttime hours,
isolated convection is possible. A marginal wind/hail risk could
accompany any stronger sustained storms near the advancing cold
front.

..Leitman.. 08/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200557
SWODY2
SPC AC 200556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop Thursday into
Thursday night over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota, with severe
gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains into parts of MN...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to evolve into a
deep-layer cyclone as it moves eastward across parts of the Canadian
Prairies on Thursday. A trailing cold front will move through the
Dakotas and northwest MN, with a weak frontal wave potentially
developing across SD. Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass
will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization by late
afternoon.

An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated remnant
convection is expected to move across MB/ND and northern MN early in
the day. In the wake of this shortwave, large-scale ascent is
expected to be generally weak until later Thursday night, resulting
in uncertainty regarding afternoon/evening storm development.
Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front, and
potentially near the weak surface low across SD. An increase in
storm coverage is expected late Thursday night, as somewhat stronger
midlevel height falls and upper-level difluence overspread the
region.

The strongest mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the
front, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization, including conditional supercell potential. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained with this outlook, but greater
severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on trends
regarding storm coverage and timing from parts of the Dakotas into
northwest MN.

Other strong storms may develop Thursday night across parts of the
northern High Plains, within a favorably sheared post-frontal
regime. Severe probabilities may eventually need to be expanded
westward, if confidence increases in a favored post-frontal
corridor.

...Coastal NC...
The center of Hurricane Erin is forecast by NHC to remain well
offshore of coastal NC on Thursday as it begins moving
northeastward. However, the western periphery of Erin's large wind
field will result in rather strong deep-layer northerly flow across
the Outer Banks and vicinity. If modest diurnal heating can occur,
then showers and possibly a few weak storms may develop during the
afternoon, though it is uncertain if any such development would be
sufficiently vigorous to support convectively augmented gusts.

...Parts of the Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians vicinity Thursday afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, but northerly low-midlevel
flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, and the
organized severe threat appears low, but localized tree damage could
accompany these storms during the afternoon and early evening.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening
across parts of AZ, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated
strong gusts could accompany these storms. With an amplified
upper-level ridge anchored near the Four Corners, midlevel flow will
generally be easterly across central/southern AZ. The easterly
steering flow and a very hot and well-mixed environment could
support a threat of strong outflow gusts into the lower elevations,
though it is uncertain if storm coverage will be sufficient for
larger-scale outflow development and more than very isolated
damaging-wind potential.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201657
SWODY2
SPC AC 201655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop Thursday into
Thursday night over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota, with severe
gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains into Minnesota...

An upper shortwave trough/cyclone will deepen and develop east
across the Canadian Prairies on Thursday. This will result in
dampening of the upper ridge/height falls across the northern Plains
vicinity. Early in the day, a weak shortwave impulse and remnant convection/cloud debris will move across portions of ND/MN.
Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the
Dakotas into northern MN through early Friday.

A corridor of rich boundary layer moisture with dewpoints generally
in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place ahead of the cold
front. However, stronger forcing for ascent will not arrive until
later in the evening/overnight. It is unclear how much diurnal
convection may develop due to weaker forcing and capping. If a storm
can form ahead of the front during the afternoon, a corridor of
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place amid 30+ kt effective shear.
Strong gusts and hail would be possible with cellular activity
through early evening.

More likely, convection will develop during the evening/nighttime
hours across parts of the region. Initial storms may develop in the post-frontal upslope regime across eastern WY/western SD and develop
east across SD overnight. It is unclear how intense these initial
storms further west will be, and probabilities may need to be
expanded westward in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases.
Once storms interact with better moisture/instability further east,
isolated severe gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/central High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant surface low is forecast to
move eastward across parts of MB and northwest ON Friday. An
outflow-influenced surface boundary may drift southeastward across
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest during the day, while a
strong trailing cold front begins to move across the Dakotas and
northern MN.

The greatest relative confidence in diurnal storm development is
within the post-frontal regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively elongated
hodographs will support potential for strong to potential severe
storm development, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated hail
and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest cells. While
uncertain, there is some potential for storm clustering during the
evening, which could result in some severe potential spreading into
parts of western NE and perhaps northwest KS Friday night.

Farther east, confidence is low regarding the details of convective
evolution from central/eastern NE/SD into the Upper Midwest. In
general, a zone of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
(locally higher), is expected to develop by afternoon near/north of
the leading surface boundary, and ahead of the trailing cold front.
Gradually strengthening midlevel flow is forecast to provide
modestly favorable effective shear (25-35 kt).

There may be some potential for early-day convection to intensify as
it moves through a destabilizing environment during the afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be
possible during the afternoon/evening within the zone of favorable moisture/instability, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and
isolated hail.

...Arizona...
Similar to D1/Thursday, scattered storm development will be possible
Friday afternoon across higher terrain areas of AZ, with easterly
flow potentially steering storms (or at least their remnant
outflows) into the lower deserts with time. Isolated damaging wind
cannot be ruled out with this activity, given the presence of a hot
and well-mixed environment, though it remains uncertain if more
substantial storm clustering and outflow consolidation will evolve
during the evening.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211711
SWODY2
SPC AC 211709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND FAR SOUTHEAST CA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest, and across southwest Arizona into far southeast California.

...Northern/Central High Plains to Upper Midwest...

An upper cyclone centered over Manitoba Friday morning and its
attendant shortwave trough extending into the northern Plains will
develop southeast into Ontario and Upper Midwest through early
Saturday. At the surface, a trailing cold front will spread
east/southeast across the region, extending from northeast MN into
southwest NE/northeast CO by 00z, before continuing on to portions
of the U.P. of MI to southwest KS/southeast CO by Saturday morning.

Ahead of the front, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in
place, and pockets of weak to moderate destabilization are forecast.
However, lapse rates are generally expected to remain modest across
the Upper Midwest, which may limit updraft intensity somewhat.
Additionally, remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period may be
ongoing across parts of MN at the beginning of the period. The
extent of this activity and associated cloud cover may temper
stronger heating/destabilization as well. Nevertheless, as
large-scale ascent increasing with the approach of the upper trough
and along the surface cold front, isolated strong to severe storms
may develop during the afternoon and evening, posing a risk for
strong gusts and marginal hail.

Further southwest into the High Plains, the post-frontal upslope
flow regime will likely result in isolated thunderstorm development
across parts of western WY/CO, with convection spreading into parts
of SD/NE. Steeper lapse rates and a deeper, mixed boundary layer may
support strong/severe gusts and isolated hail.

...Southwest AZ into far southeast CA...

A surge of monsoonal moisture is expected over the region on Friday
amid steep lapse rates and hot boundary layer conditions. This
should support modest destabilization, with strong DCAPE near 1500
J/kg noted in forecast soundings. Around 20-35 kt east/northeast
mid/upper flow atop weak westerly low-level winds will foster around
30-40 kt effective shear magnitudes. Initial thunderstorm activity
is expected to develop over higher terrain. Most CAMs guidance and
HREF calibrated/ML guidance suggest sufficient clustering and
surging outflow will move east/southeast across southwest AZ/far
southeast CA. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer/steep lapse
rates, have introduced a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
wind gust potential across the lower deserts/Lower CO Valley
vicinity.

..Leitman.. 08/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday or Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward through the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward
across the mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible near the front. Instability is expected to remain
weak along and ahead of the front, which should keep any severe
potential low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221634
SWODY2
SPC AC 221632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Midwest,
enveloping much of the eastern half of the U.S. on Saturday.
Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will persist across the West. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from Upper MI into northeast
NM Saturday morning, and sweep east/southeast through the period
across much of the MS/OH Valleys into the southern Plains.

A seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front will result in a
narrow corridor of modest destabilization across Lower MI into the
Mid-MS Valley, and westward across parts of KS/OK and the
central/southern High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may develop near the cold front, or in the
post-frontal upslope regime across the central High Plains. Modest
midlevel lapse rates are forecast amid MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Poor convergence along the front and weak large-scale ascent with south
and westward extent should limit storm coverage. Overall, severe
potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 08/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230607
SWODY2
SPC AC 230605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230617
SWODY2
SPC AC 230615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231732
SWODY2
SPC AC 231730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may reach severe thresholds from eastern Colorado into
western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening with hail or wind
potential. General thunderstorms will also be concentrated along a
cold front from parts of New York across Pennsylvania and into
northern Virginia.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over James Bay on Sunday, with an expansive
upper trough/area of cyclonic flow from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. At the surface, high
pressure will spread southeastward across the Plains and Midwest,
with a cold front roughly from western NY into KY and AR by late
afternoon. This boundary will also extend northwestward across OK
and into western KS, where it will decelerate during the day.

...Eastern CO into western KS...
A zone of stronger instability with MUCAPE to around 2000 J/kg is
forecast in the moist east/northeast surface wind regime. Low
pressure will also develop over southeast CO during the afternoon
coincident with strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates south
of the main front/wind shift. All this will occur beneath 25-30 kt
midlevel northwesterlies, which will elongate hodographs.

Early elevated storms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from
southwest NE into western KS within a warm advection regime atop the
front. It is questionable whether any of this activity would contain
hail after 12Z Sunday. However, a weakening trend is likely during
the day.

Heating west of this area and extending to the Front Range will lead
to destabilization, and initial thunderstorms are likely over the
mountains after 20Z. As the more unstable air mass becomes uncapped
over the lower plains, a few storms may attain severe levels
producing hail, and perhaps locally strong gusts. It is unclear how
much coverage will occur especially extending farther east into KS,
but conditionally the environment will continue to support at least
a low-end severe risk.

Farther south into the OK/TX Panhandles, a few southeastward-moving
cells may develop as well, but lapse rates aloft will be poor.

...Parts of central NY into PA...
A narrow band of around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast to develop
ahead of the cold front, with lift along the front supporting
scattered afternoon storms. Modest deep-layer shear around 40 kt and
primarily straight-line hodographs should yield mainly cellular
storm mode. Given this, a relatively shallow/cool boundary, and weak
flow below 700 mb, the overall wind threat appears low. While shear
will support cellular mode, relatively poor midlevel lapse rates
suggest storms may be capable of only small/sub-severe hail.

..Jewell.. 08/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
on Monday and Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of
the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure will remain in place from the Great
Plains eastward to the Appalachians. Along this southern periphery
of this airmass, post-frontal storms will be possible across parts
of the central High Plains and southern Plains Monday afternoon.
Within this airmass, any instability that develops is forecast to
remain weak, suggesting that the potential for severe storms is low.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not
expected Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241708
SWODY2
SPC AC 241706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out over a small part of
south-central Arizona Monday afternoon. Otherwise, potential for
severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be situated over eastern Canada and across
much of the central and eastern states on Monday, with a relative
ridge over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will result in
mostly stable conditions from the northern and central Plains toward
the Gulf Coast and Mid Atlantic, but residual instability may remain
over New England and across south TX and FL. Southerly winds over
the southern Plains may also interact with a southward-moving cold
front, with general thunderstorms from OK into parts of northwest
TX.

...Southern AZ...
With the upper high centered over NM, southeasterly midlevel winds
will exist over AZ, on the order of 20-25 kt. Meanwhile, light
westerly winds will exist within the deepening boundary layer as
heating occurs. Low to mid level moisture will already be in place,
and 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE appear likely by late afternoon.

Storms are expected to form over eastern Santa Cruz County (and
perhaps isolated development into eastern Pima County), with
steering currents and propagation yielding west/northwest motions.
With time, aggregate outflow may produce strong to perhaps severe
gusts on the local level as activity moves into the diurnally primed
air mass, with gusty winds possible through early evening.

..Jewell.. 08/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250541
SWODY2
SPC AC 250540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern
U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the
central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to
be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as
surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will
also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In
these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting
the severe potential will be limited.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251727
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will result in cool and/or stable conditions over much
of the central and eastern CONUS with the primary upper trough
moving to the East Coast by Wednesday morning. Behind this upper
trough, a weakening upper ridge will extend from the central Rockies
southward towards the Rio Grande Valley.

West of this ridge, lower heights with pockets of cooler midlevel
temperatures will exist over much of the Intermountain West, which
will continue to aid scattered general thunderstorm activity. While
gusty winds may occur with afternoon activity coincident with peak
heating and due to steep boundary layer lapse rates, severe storm
potential appears minimal on the large scale.

..Jewell.. 08/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.

...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261659
SWODY2
SPC AC 261658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday), though a few stronger storms
are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front
Range where locally gusty winds and small hail are possible.

...SD/MN/IA Vicinity...

A broad upper trough will be in place from the Upper Midwest to the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a persistent mid/upper
northwest flow regime across the region. Forecast guidance suggests
a weak shortwave impulse will move across the eastern Dakotas and
MN/IA during the morning/early afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front
will develop southward, extending generally west to east across
eastern SD into southern MN by peak heating. Weak southerly
low-level flow will promote shallow boundary layer moisture, with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s along/ahead of the
surface boundary. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain
modest, but weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is
forecast. Some early-day showers and clouds may linger, but isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during mid to late afternoon near
the surface boundary from far eastern SD into southern MN.

Vertically veering wind profiles, with strengthening northwest flow
through the mid/upper levels will support effective shear magnitudes
in the 25-35 kt range. Forecast hodographs also appear
elongated/straight. While 500 mb temperatures are forecast in the
-10 to -12 C range, some warming around 700 mb is apparent in some
forecast soundings. While an organized storm or two may become
strong within a favorable shear parameter space, it is uncertain if
robust updrafts will be maintained given marginal thermodynamics and
some contamination to the environment from early-day activity. An
isolated strong gust or small hail may be possible with the
strongest storms for a couple hours during the late afternoon or
early evening, but overall severe potential looks limited at this
time.

...Central High Plains...

South to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low
60s F dewpoints northwest across the central High Plains beneath
modest upper ridging over the western U.S. Daytime heating and a
developing lee-trough will provide focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon along the CO/southeast WY Front Range.
Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, but sufficient for
MLCAPE in the 500-1200 J/kg range. Modestly increasing westerly
mid/upper flow will support 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes and
somewhat elongated hodographs. A couple of strong storms capable of
sub-severe wind gusts and hail will be possible as convection
develops east/southeast into the eastern CO and western KS vicinity
through the evening. Overall, severe potential appears limited at
this time given the modest thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

..Leitman.. 08/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271705
SWODY2
SPC AC 271704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind threat, are
possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex...

A convectively enhanced vorticity max/shortwave impulse is expected
to migrate through northwesterly flow aloft from eastern KS/OK to MS
on Thursday. An MCS is likely to be ongoing across parts of eastern
KS/OK at the beginning of the forecast period, and track southeast
along a stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from eastern
OK into southern AR. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be located
over southwest OK/northwest TX, and a cold front will develop
southward across the southern High Plains and toward the Red River.
Outflow from the morning MCS and the cold front may eventually merge
across eastern OK and the ArkLaTex, and westward near the Red River
vicinity. Ahead of this boundary, a very most airmass with dewpoints
in the mid 60s to near 70 F will be in place amid strong heating
into the 90s.

Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain weak. Nevertheless, rich
boundary layer moisture will foster MLCAPE values maxing out near
2000 J/kg. Redevelopment or re-invigoration of the morning MCS may
occur within this thermodynamic environment, aided by vertically
veering wind profiles and 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with westward extent as the
shortwave impulse departs eastward toward the Lower MS Valley, a
deeply mixed boundary layer is evident in forecast soundings. This
could support strong downdrafts with any storms developing further
west along the cold front across southwest OK/north TX. Strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm activity Thursday
afternoon into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains on Friday.

...Sabine Valley vicinity...

An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning in the vicinity of a
stationary boundary/quasi-warm front oriented from the ArkLaTex
toward the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of this activity and associated
outflow, a narrow corridor of heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F
amid 70s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Vertical shear is forecast to remain weak, but up to 25 kt
effective shear magnitudes could support organized/robust multi-cell thunderstorm activity along the surface boundary during the
afternoon/early evening. This activity could produce strong to
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse is forecast to track across the central
Rockies into the central Plains on Friday afternoon/evening. This
will support modestly enhanced west/northwest mid/upper flow. While
0-3 km flow will be light, vertically veering wind profiles will
foster 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop over higher terrain, and near a surface low over
western NE, during the afternoon. A mix of supercells and
multi-cells will develop east/southeast into modest boundary-layer
moisture where midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE
up to 2000 J/kg. Isolated large hail and sporadic strong/severe wind
gusts will be possible into early evening.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291712
SWODY2
SPC AC 291711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity...

An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on
Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and
move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the
afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing
mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds,
resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes.

Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and
another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold
front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast
NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward
into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal
thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and
multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and
sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms
may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where
stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in
some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly
mid-level flow regime will become established across the central
U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued
low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse
will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a
lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and
southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger
storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by
a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing
too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

$$

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